AI risks from an Arab world perspective

AI risks from an Arab world perspective

AI risks from an Arab world perspective
Data is a significant factor in the peril of AI systems, particularly regarding value misalignment. (Shutterstock image)
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Imagine a future where machines work alongside us and make decisions that shape our societies, economies and even our daily lives. This is the promise and peril of artificial intelligence as it stands at the brink of transforming our world.

AI is offering unprecedented advancements across various sectors. However, this rapid development also brings significant risks. As the Arab world steps into this new era, it is crucial to understand these risks and their direct implications for our region’s unique context.

Unlike traditional software, which operates within predefined parameters set by developers, making its behavior more predictable and easier to control, AI systems, especially advanced ones, have the potential to make autonomous decisions that can significantly impact human lives, societies and ethical standards.

Therefore, we need to talk about AI values in a way that we do not typically discuss software values.

AI systems, particularly those involving machine learning and neural networks, can evolve and learn from data, leading to behaviors that are not explicitly programmed. Data is a significant factor in the peril of AI systems, particularly regarding value misalignment.

However, it is not the only factor. The overall alignment of AI systems with human values also depends on designing and implementing algorithms, training processes and other technical and ethical considerations.

Most AI systems are developed outside the Arab world, primarily in regions with different cultural, social and ethical values. This can lead to a significant misalignment between the values embedded in these systems and those of the Arab world.

The social and cultural fabric of the Arab world is deeply rooted in community values, ethics and traditions. Introducing advanced AI systems raises questions about their alignment with these values.

Systems developed in the West or in East Asia may not fully understand or respect the cultural norms and values of the Arab world. This can result in AI behaviors or culturally insensitive or inappropriate decisions.

Moreover, AI applications require a deep understanding of local contexts to function effectively and ethically. Without this, systems might make decisions that overlook important regional nuances.

The ethical frameworks guiding AI development in other regions might differ significantly from those in the Arab world. This can lead to AI systems that make decisions based on ethical principles not fully aligned with local values.

To address the potential misalignment, the Arab world needs to invest in local AI research and development to create systems aligned with regional values and contexts. This includes training local talent and establishing research institutions focused on culturally aware AI.

We are not advocating for decoupled AI development. On the contrary, working with international AI developers is paramount to ensure that the systems they create are adaptable to different cultural contexts.

The Arab world needs to invest in local AI research and development to create systems aligned with regional values and contexts.

Mohammed A. Al-Qarni

This collaboration can help integrate local values and norms into global AI systems. Such collaboration would require developing ethical guidelines for AI development and deployment that reflect the values and priorities of the Arab world. Such guidelines can serve as a benchmark for evaluating and adopting AI technologies from other regions.

As the science fiction writer William Gibson said: “The future is already here — it’s just not very evenly distributed.”

AI is the future, so we cannot fight it. Many experts and analysts describe its impact on the economy as akin to electrification and the industrial revolution. This comparison holds substantial merit.

Like electricity and the industrial revolution, AI has the potential to influence virtually every industry. From healthcare and finance to transportation and manufacturing, AI technologies are being integrated into various sectors, transforming how they operate.

AI can automate complex tasks, optimize processes and enable new levels of efficiency and productivity, driving substantial economic growth.

The promise of AI goes beyond traditional industries to enable the development of new technologies and industries, such as autonomous vehicles, personalized medicine and intelligent infrastructure.

The Arab world is undergoing a significant economic transformation, diversifying away from oil. Given AI’s potential, it can play a crucial role in this transition, but also faces the prospect of workforce displacement and economic disparity.

As AI is integrated into industries, managing its adoption to enhance productivity while creating new job opportunities and upskilling the workforce must be strategically managed.

Automation should be balanced with efforts to reskill workers and integrate them into new roles created by AI advancements.

The promised economic benefits of AI must be distributed equitably across different segments of society, preventing widening economic disparities.

These requirements can only be met by developing educational programs that prepare the workforce for the AI-driven future. This includes integrating AI literacy into school curriculums and offering specialized training programs in AI and related fields.

Policies and programs should be developed to support those most affected by AI-induced changes in the labor market. This might include supporting small- and medium-sized enterprises in adopting AI technologies and ensuring that rural and underserved areas can access AI resources and training.

The Arab world’s human capital must be enabled to innovate in the AI space and not remain a passive recipient of globally developed systems, encouraging the development of innovation hubs and ecosystems that support AI research, development and entrepreneurship. This can help drive economic growth and create new job opportunities in the AI sector.

In short, as the Arab world embraces AI’s transformative potential, it is crucial to consider the associated risks from a regional perspective.

By developing robust regulatory frameworks, fostering cultural sensitivity and ensuring equitable economic benefits, the region can harness AI’s potential while safeguarding against its potential harms.

Engaging with global thought leaders and adopting best practices will further enhance the region’s ability to navigate the complex landscape of AI risks and opportunities.

Mohammed A. Al-Qarni is an academic and consultant on AI for business
 

Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point of view

Red Bull brings wrong rear wing to Las Vegas in mistake that could stall Verstappen’s title chances

Red Bull brings wrong rear wing to Las Vegas in mistake that could stall Verstappen’s title chances
Updated 2 min 8 sec ago
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Red Bull brings wrong rear wing to Las Vegas in mistake that could stall Verstappen’s title chances

Red Bull brings wrong rear wing to Las Vegas in mistake that could stall Verstappen’s title chances
The most jarring sign of trouble came in Thursday night’s second practice when the Dutchman was a dismal 17th on the speed chart compared to Norris
Red Bull apparently brought the wrong rear wing to Las Vegas and GPS data showed its two cars to be significantly slower on the straights than both McLaren and Mercedes

LAS VEGAS: Max Verstappen, needing just three points over Lando Norris at the Las Vegas Grand Prix to seal a fourth consecutive Formula 1 championship, is suddenly in jeopardy of being denied the crown Saturday night.
The most jarring sign of trouble came in Thursday night’s second practice when the Dutchman was a dismal 17th on the speed chart compared to Norris, who was among the top three fastest drivers in both sessions.
Red Bull apparently brought the wrong rear wing to Las Vegas and GPS data showed its two cars to be significantly slower on the straights than both McLaren and Mercedes, which led both practice sessions with Lewis Hamilton. Red Bull said it doesn’t have a replacement rear wing in Las Vegas to fix the issue and little chance of getting two flown in from England in time.
Verstappen, however, proved two weeks ago in Brazil that adversity is nothing he can’t overcome. He started 17th on a wet and rainy circuit and still managed to win his first race since June by nearly 20 seconds.
Verstappen, whose eight wins this season are his fewest since 2020, has not won back-to-back races since Canada and Spain in June. But the Brazil win widened his lead over Norris in the standings to 62 points and the championship is his barring a complete collapse over the final three races.
He is not sure what to expect Saturday night.
“I just want to focus on the weekend and try to have a good performance. Brazil was a very welcome victory for us after a while, but this is again very different,” said Verstappen, who won the inaugural Las Vegas Grand Prix last year.
Prior to discovering the rear wing issue, Verstappen felt decent about his chances in Las Vegas.
“Three races left, you’re getting close to the end of the season and it’s looking good in the championship, but we still need to score a lot of points so we’ll just focus on that,” he said. “Once we are doing that then you get closer to the end result.”
Norris not giving up
Norris was admittedly downtrodden after Brazil, where he started on the pole but finished sixth and lost ground to Verstappen after first cutting the lead to 44 points by winning the sprint race.
“This was almost a defining moment for the championship. It was a defining moment for the championship. The doors are almost shut,” Norris said. “For a week, I was pretty down because I had that realization of things pretty much out of my control now, not within reach necessarily. That’s a tough realization when your hopes and belief are so high. For it to get knocked down so much all of a sudden was pretty demoralizing.”
Even so, Norris is convinced he will one day be F1 world champion.
“I have what it takes,” Norris said. “I think it’s the first time in the last six years of F1 when we’ve had a chance to fight at the front. This is our, and my, first opportunity to do so, and my first opportunity to see where I stand. I definitely was not at the level I needed to be at the beginning of the year.
“I still need to make tweaks and I still need to improve on things, that’s clear. I’m not completely satisfied with how I’ve done and I definitely know I need to make improvements,” he added. “But, for the first time, I’m confident to say I have what I think I need to fight for a championship.”
Norris has the first three wins of his career this season and has McLaren currently atop the constructor championship standings. He knows he’s got more work to do to be champion, especially against Verstappen.
“It doesn’t mean I’m complete, it doesn’t mean I’m perfect. When you’re competing against drivers who are close to that, like Max, you have to be close to perfect if you want to challenge him,” Norris said.
Constructor championship
McLaren is still clinging to a 36-point lead over Ferrari in the battle for the constructor championship, a title worth a bonus estimated to be $150 million.
McLaren last won that title in 1998, while Ferrari last won in 2008. Red Bull has won the last two titles. Ferrari could chip away at McLaren’s lead at Las Vegas.
“Ferrari have been strong for a long time,” said Norris. “They have two very good drivers, they’re a very good team, they’ve clearly improved their car a good amount and found a better direction to head down. We do know that Vegas is probably a track that will suit the Ferraris a bit more, it suited them well last year, but Qatar we know maybe will be more favorable to us.”
Carlos Sainz Jr., in his final three races for Ferrari before he is replaced by Hamilton and moves to Williams, wants to close his tenure by helping the team win the constructors title.
“I would love to win the championship for Ferrari this year,” Sainz said. “I think it would be a great way to sign off the season.”
He predicted that McLaren will be stronger in the final two races of the year, at Qatar and Abu Dhabi. But at Las Vegas? Sainz expects he and teammate Charles Leclerc to be stronger.
“This (track) is more Ferrari than McLaren, but at the same time, the temperature is not, so we’ll see how it pans out,” Sainz said of temperatures expected to be in the 40s Fahrenheit (5-10 degrees Celsius) on Saturday night.

Gaming community in Saudi Arabia catches them all with Pokemon Go

‘Saudi Arabia is experiencing incredible growth in gaming with more than 67 percent of the population being passionate gamers.’
‘Saudi Arabia is experiencing incredible growth in gaming with more than 67 percent of the population being passionate gamers.’
Updated 12 min 17 sec ago
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Gaming community in Saudi Arabia catches them all with Pokemon Go

‘Saudi Arabia is experiencing incredible growth in gaming with more than 67 percent of the population being passionate gamers.’
  • Maan Al-Qurashi, one of the community leaders at Pokemon Go Saudi, told Arab News that the game holds a special place in his heart because he has played different versions for more than 20 years

RIYADH: The official launch of Pokemon Go in Saudi Arabia has brought together a community of gamers who have embraced their inner child while competing and connecting in a world of nostalgic adventure.

Pokemon Go is an augmented reality game that creates an immersive experience of a world where human beings co-exist with colorful creatures with otherworldly superpowers, known as Pokemon.

The game, launched internationally in 2016, uses GPS to track movement and invites players to travel to real-world locations to catch Pokemon and battle with others.

Fans from more than 20 countries around the globe registered at the event. (Supplied)

A local gaming group, “Pokemon Go Saudi,” has created a lively community with members from Riyadh and the Eastern Province who have a shared love of the game.

Maan Al-Qurashi, one of the community leaders at Pokemon Go Saudi, told Arab News that the game holds a special place in his heart because he has played different versions for more than 20 years.

“Pokemon accompanied me in all stages of my life, from childhood to teenager, and still is a part of my daily life after marriage. Hopefully, I will pass down the same passion to my kids.”

HIGHLIGHT

Pokemon Go is an augmented reality game that creates an immersive experience of a world where human beings co-exist with colorful creatures with otherworldly superpowers, known as Pokemon.

Al-Qurashi said Pokemon Go Saudi began with 10 members in 2017, after the international launch of the game.

Today, the community comprises a diverse group of 500 members from all age groups who have made lasting friendships with their Pokemon partners. As a team, they go on adventures, train to improve their skills, and battle in friendly competitions.

‘Saudi Arabia is experiencing incredible growth in gaming with more than 67 percent of the population being passionate gamers.’ (Supplied)

Al-Qurashi said that it is more than a game. It is a community that fosters growth and friendship.

“Multiple in-person activities and relationships have been linked to Pokemon Go. For example, the daily routine is not only going to work and staying with family, it includes playing Pokemon Go even if it’s for a few minutes during the day or an hour or so.”

Last week, more than 5,000 Pokemon Go fans gathered at Boulevard City to celebrate the official launch of the Saudi application. Omar Tellez, vice president at Niantic, said that the event was the largest Pokemon Go event of its kind in the region to date.

Maan AlQurashi, one of the community leaders at Pokemon Go Saudi. (Supplied)

“Seeing the joy of the thousands of attendees, of all ages, has been such a delight. The success of today’s event is a testament to the popularity of Pokemon Go here in the Kingdom. The community has really responded.”

Fans from more than 20 countries around the globe registered at the event.

“It’s been incredible to see them unite to catch some of their favorite Pokemon and enjoy their time together in person. That’s what our game is all about.

Fans from more than 20 countries around the globe registered at the event. (Supplied)

“We have loved seeing their passion and excitement firsthand – whether through cheering on their teams during the PvP battles, or celebrating that iconic button-press moment — or join forces to catch Mewtwo as the legendary Pokemon took over the Boulevard Screens. The atmosphere was truly something special,” Tellez said.

Saudi Arabia is experiencing incredible growth in gaming with more than 67 percent of the population — more than 23.5 million people — being passionate gamers, Tellez said.

“We are excited to welcome many of them into our global trainers community, and we know this event is just the start of our adventure together as we create new experiences and ways for them to connect here in KSA.”

Today, more than 100 million people play Pokemon Go every year in more than 150 countries and regions, making for more than a billion downloads. Trainers have walked more than 8 billion kilometers collectively while playing the game.

 

 


4 Italian UN peacekeepers injured by rocket attack in Lebanon

4 Italian UN peacekeepers injured by rocket attack in Lebanon
Updated 22 min 11 sec ago
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4 Italian UN peacekeepers injured by rocket attack in Lebanon

4 Italian UN peacekeepers injured by rocket attack in Lebanon
  • Israeli forces continue to pound targets in southern Lebanon and suburbs of Beirut
  • Paramedics and health facilities among those attacked; women and infants among dead as searches for victims buried in rubble continue

BEIRUT: At least five medical workers were reported dead on Friday as Israeli forces continued to pound targets in southern Lebanon and the outskirts of Beirut.

The attacks intensified after US envoy Amos Hochstein left Tel Aviv on Thursday evening and returned to Washington after discussions with Israeli authorities. This followed his talks with Lebanese officials on Tuesday and Wednesday about a proposed diplomatic solution to the conflict in Lebanon between the Israeli army and Hezbollah, which marked its 52nd day on Friday. Hochstein did not disclose the outcome of the discussions.

On Friday, the UN Interim Force in Lebanon’s Italian unit reported that four of its soldiers were injured when two rockets struck their headquarters in the western sector, in Shamaa. Tasked with monitoring the Blue Line that separates Lebanon from Israel, UNIFIL’s 10,000 peacekeepers have repeatedly come under fire during the conflict.

Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, expressed her “deep indignation and concern” over “new attacks suffered by the Italian headquarters of UNIFIL in southern Lebanon.” She said “these attacks are unacceptable” and called on “the parties on the ground to guarantee, at all times, the safety of UNIFIL soldiers and to collaborate to identify those responsible quickly.”

UNIFIL said “two 122 mm rockets struck the Sector West headquarters” in Shamaa, about 5 kilometers from the Israeli border. The area has been a battleground for about a week. The injuries to the peacekeepers were not life-threatening and they were receiving treatment at the base’s hospital.

“UNIFIL strongly urges combating parties to avoid fighting next to its positions,” the force added.

Hezbollah said its fighters targeted Israeli troops in Shamaa with a salvo of rockets to prevent them from occupying the area. Israeli forces had advanced into the area over the previous two days and attempted further incursions toward the coastal town of Bayada, between Naqoura and Tyre.

Italy’s defense minister, Guido Crosetto, said he had contacted his Lebanese counterpart “reiterating that the Italian contingent of UNIFIL remains in southern Lebanon to offer a window of opportunity for peace, and cannot become hostage to attacks by militias.”

Also on Friday, the Israeli army carried out airstrikes on Beirut’s suburbs, targeting buildings in Ain Al-Remmaneh, a predominantly Christian area adjacent to Chiyah.

Israeli forces also continued their attempts to advance into southern towns. A force entered Deir Mimas, beyond the border town of Kfarkela, where it ordered eight families still residing there to remain in their homes.

Deir Mimas is in the Marjayoun district of Nabatiyeh Governorate, about 90 kilometers from Beirut. Its mayor, George Nakad, confirmed “the incursion” and said soldiers had entered it from Kfarkela, through olive fields.

Photos circulating on social media appeared to show Israeli tanks crossing the Litani road at the Qlayaa-Deir Mimas-Burj Al-Molouk triangle, supported by aerial cover and airstrikes on southern regions.

Elsewhere, Hezbollah said it targeted an Israeli Merkava tank with a guided missile south of the town of Khiam, which the Israeli army entered on Thursday. The tank was destroyed and its crew killed or injured, it added.

Israel on Friday intensified its reconnaissance flights over Lebanese regions exposed to airstrikes. Before 7 a.m., Israeli evacuation warnings circulated on social media ahead of strikes on parts of Hadath, Haret Hreik and Kafaat in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

About 30 minutes later, airstrikes hit residential buildings, one of which was located near the Lebanese University campus. Thick black smoke blanketed the area and the smell of gunpowder and other substances spread through neighborhoods, with reports of breathing problems and eye irritation.

Less than four hours later, Israeli forces issued a warning to residents of the Chiyah and Ain Al-Remaneh areas, and then targeted two residential buildings that also housed a medical laboratory, a gym, hair salons, beauty clinics, and clothes and fishing-tackle shops. One building was destroyed, the other cut in half.

The Israeli warnings sparked mass hysteria and displacement of the local population in Ain Al-Remaneh. Residents of Chiyah joined the exodus. Clashes were reported among the crowds after some blamed Hezbollah for the conflict. Six Israeli raids on the areas had taken place as of noon on Friday. The previous day, parts of the southern suburbs were hit intermittently by more than 10 Israeli air attacks.

In southern Lebanon, meanwhile, Israeli forces once again targeted ambulances belonging to Hezbollah’s Islamic Health Organization, which they said were were being used to “transport militants or weapons.” An attack on one of the organization’s ambulances at Deir Qanun junction, Ras Al-Ain, killed the paramedics inside.

The Lebanese Ministry of Health said Israel forces were targeting paramedics and medical facilities in the south in violation of international laws and norms and humanitarian laws.

Israel also targeted villages in the deep south, including Ghaziyeh and areas in the vicinity of Sidon, with heavy attacks that reportedly resulted in casualties and great destruction.

Meanwhile, search operations continued to find bodies under the rubble of houses and other buildings damaged or destroyed by Israeli attacks. Raids on southern villages, including Kafr Rumman, have resulted in seven confirmed deaths and one injury.

Four bodies were found under the rubble in Arabsalim. In Bekaa, several members of one family, including women and children, were killed by Israeli attacks on the village of Flawiye on Thursday. One person was reported missing. Eleven people from several families, including infants, were killed in attacks on Nabha.

Attacks on targets in northern Bekaa reached a peak on Thursday night, with 18 raids that killed 17 people in Baalbek, Maqneh, Younine, Beit Mchik, Brital and Hosh Al-Rafika.

Lebanese residents in areas stretching from Beirut to the Bekaa Valley and northern regions were alarmed on Friday morning by suspicious calls urging them to evacuate their homes. The calls sparked panic for a second consecutive day among people in several areas, including hotel guests in Beirut's Raouche district, residents of villages in Zgharta, and people in the village of Bebnine in Akkar, in the far north of the country

Others who received calls included residents of Beirut and its northern and eastern suburbs, including Furn El-Chebbak, Dekwaneh, Mar Roukoz, Burj Abi Haidar, Basta, Ras El-Nabeh, Bchamoun, Choueifat, and as far as Jbeil.

Hezbollah on Friday reaffirmed its ability to maintain its attacking threat and said it had targeted several locations in northern Israel. They included the settlement of Kiryat Shmona, the Haifa technical base about 35 kilometers from the border, and an Israeli early-warning and intelligence center linked to the 210th Golan Division on the summit of Mount Hermon in the occupied Syrian Golan. The Dovev barracks and a gathering of Israeli forces in the Manara settlement were also attacked.

Across Lebanon on Friday, national flags were raised at official institutions to mark the 81st anniversary of the country’s independence. In hundreds of shelters, children from displaced families sang the Lebanese national anthem, and some young people symbolically hoisted flags over the rubble in areas ravaged by recent attacks.

The speaker of the Lebanese parliament, Nabih Berri, described this year’s anniversary of independence as “a somber occasion, yet a reminder of the daily challenge to persevere, to uphold national unity, and to protect every inch of our homeland — south, north, east and sea — without surrender or despair.”

 


Putin says Russia will keep testing new missile in combat

Putin says Russia will keep testing new missile in combat
Updated 24 min 6 sec ago
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Putin says Russia will keep testing new missile in combat

Putin says Russia will keep testing new missile in combat
  • The Kremlin leader described the missile’s first use as a successful test, and said more would follow
  • “We will continue these tests, including in combat conditions, depending on the situation and the nature of the security threats that are created for Russia,” he said

MOSCOW: President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that Russia would keep testing its new Oreshnik hypersonic missile in combat and had a stock ready for use.
Putin was speaking a day after Russia fired the new intermediate-range weapon into Ukraine for the first time, a step he said was prompted by Ukraine’s use of US ballistic missiles and British cruise missiles to hit Russia.
The Kremlin leader described the missile’s first use as a successful test, and said more would follow.
“We will continue these tests, including in combat conditions, depending on the situation and the nature of the security threats that are created for Russia,” he said in televised comments to defense officials and missile developers.
“Moreover, we have a stock of such products, a stock of such systems ready for use.”
A US official, however, said the weapon Russia used was an experimental one. The official said Russia has a limited number of them and that this is not a capability that Russia is able to regularly deploy on the battlefield.
Intermediate missiles have a range of 3,000-5,500 km (1,860-3,415 miles), which would enable them to strike anywhere in Europe or the western United States from Russia.
Security experts said the novel feature of the Oreshnik missile was that it carried multiple warheads capable of simultaneously striking different targets — something usually associated with longer-range intercontinental ballistic missiles designed to carry nuclear warheads.
Ukraine said the missile reached a top speed of more than 13,000 kph (8,000 mph) and took about 15 minutes to reach its target from its launch.
The firing of the missile was part of a sharp rise in tensions this week as both Ukraine and Russia have struck each other’s territory with increasingly potent weapons.
Moscow says that by giving the green light for Ukraine to fire Western missiles deep inside Russia, the US and its allies are entering into direct conflict with Russia. On Tuesday, Putin approved policy changes that lowered the threshold for Russia to use nuclear weapons in response to an attack with conventional weapons.

SEVERE ESCALATION
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia’s use of the new missile amounted to “a clear and severe escalation” in the war and called for strong worldwide condemnation. He said Ukraine was working on developing new types of air defense to counter “new risks.”
The Kremlin said the firing of the Oreshnik was a warning to the West against taking further “reckless” actions and decisions in support of Ukraine.
The Oreshnik was fired with conventional, not nuclear warheads. Putin said it was not a strategic nuclear weapon but its striking power and accuracy meant that its impact would be comparable, “especially when used in a massive group and in combination with other high-precision long-range systems.”
He said the missile was incapable of being shot down by an enemy.
“I will add that there is no countermeasure to such a missile, no means of intercepting it, in the world today. And I will emphasize once again that we will continue testing this newest system. It is necessary to establish serial production,” he said.


UN warns some who fled to Syria risking lives to return to Lebanon

UN warns some who fled to Syria risking lives to return to Lebanon
Updated 37 min 6 sec ago
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UN warns some who fled to Syria risking lives to return to Lebanon

UN warns some who fled to Syria risking lives to return to Lebanon
  • Gonzalo Vargas Llosa, the UN refugee agency’s representative in Syria, said: “These are very, very small numbers, but for us, even small numbers are worrying signals“
  • The UNHCR estimates that around 560,000 people have fled into Syria from neighboring Lebanon since late September

GENEVA: The UN voiced concern Friday that conditions were so dire in Syria that some Lebanese residents who had fled there seeking refuge from the Israel-Hezbollah war were opting to return to Lebanon.
There are “Lebanese families who are beginning to take the very difficult and potentially life-threatening decision to return to Lebanon,” said Gonzalo Vargas Llosa, the United Nations refugee agency’s representative in Syria.
“These are very, very small numbers, but for us, even small numbers are worrying signals,” he told reporters in Geneva via video link from the Syrian-Lebanese border.
The UNHCR estimates that around 560,000 people have fled into Syria from neighboring Lebanon since late September, when months of cross-border fire between Israel and Hezbollah over the war in Gaza escalated into all-out war.
Lebanese authorities put the number even higher, at more than 610,000.
Vargas Llosa said that around 65 percent of those crossing into Syria — itself torn apart by 13 years of civil war — were Syrian nationals who had sought refuge in Lebanon from that conflict.
He pointed out that from 2017 up to September 23 this year, around 400,000 Syrians had returned to their country from Lebanon.
“We have had more or less the same number... in a period of seven to eight weeks,” he said, adding that some 150,000 Lebanese had also arrived in Syria during that period.
He hailed the “exemplary” and “extraordinary display of generosity” shown toward those arriving by communities across Syria, “whose infrastructure is destroyed, whose economy is destroyed.”
But he warned that given Syria’s own “catastrophic economic situation... it is unclear for how long this generosity will last.”
Worrying signs were already emerging, he said, pointing to the admittedly small numbers of people who were opting to return to Lebanon despite the risks.
UNHCR said that “on average up to 50 Lebanese individuals per day” were crossing back into Lebanon.
They were leaving because they thought “the conditions in Syria are appalling, and that they may be better off in Lebanon, in spite of the bombings,” Vargas Llosa said.
Back in Lebanon, they might have better support systems, easier access to services and even the ability to generate a little income, he said.
He warned that “unless there is a real injection of international support... this number of Lebanese choosing to return home to these extraordinarily difficult circumstances may grow in the coming weeks and months.”
“This would be extremely worrying.”
There were even some Syrian returnees who were opting to once again cross back into Lebanon, “primarily because of the extraordinarily dire economic conditions here in Syria,” Vargas Llosa said.
In the meantime, he said that there had recently been “an important decrease in the pace of arrivals” into Syria, from a peak of 10,000-15,000 per day to an average now of about 2,000.
Vargas Llosa charged that this was likely linked to Israel’s repeated bombings of border crossings.
“Syrians and Lebanese are very scared of using these escape routes,” he said, appealing to the Israeli military to “immediately stop these unacceptable attacks.”